Are electricity system outages and the generation mix related? Evidence from NSW, Australia

Abstract

This paper examines the patterns of electricity system outages and their association with the generation mix. Using hourly outage and generation data from the state of New South Wales, Australia between 2013 and 2019 we investigate the relationship between different generation types, electricity demand, weather conditions and the onset and severity of power outages in the following hour. We find that higher levels of wind generation prior to an outage event are associated with an increase in the extent of outages measured in customer-minutes, while more black coal generation is associated with a lower extent of outages. High wind and storm conditions are related to more blackouts. Our results also indicate that wind generation appears to be the most vulnerable under stormy weather conditions. In recent years solar generation has been associated with a lower expected value of outage events, due to its ability to supply electricity on hot summer days during peak demand. Electricity demand, partly driven by high temperatures is also significant in explaining outages. Overall, our findings indicate that a successful clean energy transition in the electricity sector will have to focus on addressing reliability challenges connected to the changing generation mix.