Are dividend changes exploited in the equity market?

Abstract

This paper investigates whether the equity market anticipates dividend changes that have large value effects in the days leading to the announcements. In particular, I partition dividend changes into those with large and small value effects based on dividend and firm characteristics and study the abnormal returns preceding the changes by the two groups. T-tests are used to test the difference in mean abnormal returns preceding dividend changes by the two groups, and regression techniques are used to test whether this difference is equal to the corresponding difference for firms that maintain dividends. The results show that the abnormal returns preceding dividend changes that have large value effects are not different from those preceding dividend changes that have minimal value effects or, if there is a difference, it is statistically similar to the corresponding difference preceding unchanged dividends. Thus, it does not appear that the equity market exploits the price effect of dividend changes that have large value effects in the days leading to the events. This contrasts evidence that shows that the equity market anticipates corporate events that have large price effects in the days proximal to the events.