Abstract
Stereotypes about 32 country-of-origin groups were measured using an online survey of the adult, non-elderly Danish population (n = 476 after quality control). Participants were asked to estimate each group’s net fiscal contribution in Denmark. These estimates were then compared to the actual net fiscal contributions for the 32 groups, taken from a report by the Danish Ministry of Finance. Stereotypes were found to be highly accurate, both at the aggregate level (r = 0.81) and at the individual level (median r = 0.62). Interestingly, participants over- rather than underestimated the net fiscal contributions of groups from countries with a higher percentage of Muslims. Indeed, this was true at both the aggregate and individual levels (r = −0.25 and median r = −0.49, respectively). Participants were also asked to say how many immigrants from each group should be admitted to Denmark. There was a very strong correlation between participants’ aggregate immigration policy preferences and their estimates of the 32 groups’ fiscal contributions (r = 0.98), suggesting that their preferences partly reflect accurate stereotypes. Most of the analyses were pre-registered.
Highlights
Since the beginning of the European migrant crisis, researchers have become increasingly interested in how different characteristics of prospective immigrants affect Europeans’ immigration policy preferences [1,2,3,4]
This study found that stereotypes were slightly ‘biased’ in favor of Muslims: people’s estimates of Muslims’ net fiscal contributions were slightly too high relative to criterion values, not too low. (We should note that our study does not seek to make any claims about the level of employment or other discrimination against Muslims in Denmark.)
The median individual accuracy observed of r = 0.62 (r = 0.65 when excluding Syria) is likewise larger than the majority of effects observed in social science [43,44]
Summary
Since the beginning of the European migrant crisis, researchers have become increasingly interested in how different characteristics of prospective immigrants affect Europeans’ immigration policy preferences [1,2,3,4]. One possible interpretation of his result is that people rely, at least in part, on unmeasured but accurate stereotypes about origin country groups to inform their immigration policy preferences This interpretation is consistent with a recent study by Kirkegaard and Bjerrekær [6], who found that Danish people’s estimates of welfare use rates for 70 origin country groups correlated at r = 0.70 [0.55, 0.80] with the actual use rates for those groups. An alternative explanation for the results obtained by Carl [5] and Kirkegaard & Bjerrekær [6] is that stereotypes held by the host population cause differential outcomes across origin country groups via the process of self-fulfilling prophecy [11,12,13,14]. Our key hypotheses were that: respondents would hold accurate stereotypes about origin country groups’ net fiscal contributions; that they would display greater opposition to origin country groups with more negative net fiscal contributions in Denmark; and that the association between net fiscal contributions and immigration policy preferences would be mediated by respondents’ stereotypes about origin country groups’ net fiscal contributions
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