Abstract
Developing an effective tsunami evacuation plan is essential for disaster risk reduction in coastal regions. To develop effective tsunami evacuation plans, real transportation network, interaction among evacuees, and uncertainties associated with future tsunami events need to be considered in a holistic manner. This study aims to develop such an integrated tsunami evacuation approach using agent-based evacuation simulation and advanced stochastic tsunami hazard assessment. As a case study, a urban area in Padang, Indonesia, threatened by tsunamis from the Mentawai–Sunda subduction zone, is adopted. The uncertainty of the tsunami hazard is taken into account by generating 900 stochastic tsunami inundation maps for three earthquake magnitudes, i.e. 8.5, 8.75, and 9.0. A simplified evacuation approach considering the evacuees moving directly to evacuation areas (defined a priori) is compared with two more rigorous agent-based modeling approaches: (a) a two-destination-point tsunami evacuation plan developed by the local government and (b) a multiple-destination-point plan developed in this study. The improved agent-based stochastic tsunami evacuation framework with multiple destinations takes advantage of the extensive tsunami hazard analyses to define safe areas in a dynamic manner and is capable of capturing the uncertainty of future tsunami risk in coastal areas. In contrast, the results clearly show that the simplified approach significantly underestimates the evacuation time, and the existing tsunami evacuation routes identified by local authorities may be insufficient to save lives.
Highlights
Tsunamis are one of the deadliest natural hazards in the world and have resulted in more than 200,000 fatalities and economic losses greater than 14 trillion U.S dollars in the last 20 years (Rossetto et al 2007; Charvet et al 2014; Fukutani et al 2015)
This paper proposed a novel computational framework to develop effective and reliable tsunami evacuation plans by integrating an agent-based modelling and stochastic tsunami inundation maps
A total of 900 stochastic inundation maps generated from three magnitude scenarios were used to define extra evacuation points
Summary
Tsunamis are one of the deadliest natural hazards in the world and have resulted in more than 200,000 fatalities and economic losses greater than 14 trillion U.S dollars in the last 20 years (Rossetto et al 2007; Charvet et al 2014; Fukutani et al 2015). The dynamic approach considers the realistic evacuation routes used by the agent to the evacuation point and time-dependency of the accessible routes prior to tsunami arrival (Zarboutis and Marmaras 2007; Chen and Zhan 2008). Such a dynamic approach has been implemented to develop realistic evacuation plans for various hazard mitigations (e.g. flood, urban fire, and dynamic urban growth; Zhang et al 2015; Augustijn et al 2016; Nishino 2019)
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