Abstract
This paper focuses on the process of convergence in per capita CO2 emissions that would occur if the measures taken by the European Union to meet the Kyoto Protocol commitments had been effective. We apply a time series and cross-sectional analysis to test for the existence of convergence among countries and for different economic sectors. The sample covers data for the 28 member countries from 1960 to 2012. The results show weak absolute convergence across countries but clear evidence of conditional convergence, with GDP, the weight of industrial sector and the use of renewable energies being the main drivers of divergence. Concerning sectors, there is an increase of emissions in the agricultural sector, but a reduction in the industrial and energy sectors. Different patterns arise in the energy subsectors where manufacturing and electricity notably reduced their emissions while the transport sector increased them in all countries.
Highlights
Since the Kyoto Protocol was signed in 1997, the European Union has played a leading role in the fight against climate change, pledging to reduce its emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG)
This paper focuses on the process of convergence in per capita CO2 emissions that would occur if the measures taken by the European Union to meet the Kyoto Protocol commitments had been effective
The results show weak absolute convergence across countries but clear evidence of conditional convergence, with GDP, the weight of industrial sector and the use of renewable energies being the main drivers of divergence
Summary
Since the Kyoto Protocol was signed in 1997, the European Union has played a leading role in the fight against climate change, pledging to reduce its emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). The targets range from a 20% reduction in GHG emissions for Denmark, Ireland and Luxembourg to an increase of 20% for Bulgaria These goals imply a process of convergence in emissions among the member countries: the heavier polluters must reduce them while the countries with lower emissions are allowed to increase them. Our paper addresses this timely and important matter. We focus on the agricultural sector since it is the main producer of methane, a greenhouse gas included in the Kyoto Protocol with a warming power around twenty times that of carbon dioxide.
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