Are African countries on track to achieve their NDCs pledges? Evidence from difference-in-differences technique

Abstract

Climate change poses economic, social, and environmental challenges to humanity. Through the Kyoto Protocol and Paris Agreement (PA), World leaders are obliged to identify climate solutions. In 2015, within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Challenge (UNFCCC), 197 countries negotiated the PA on climate change mitigation and adaptation. This study examines Africa's Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) pledges: 47 African countries provided such pledges in 2016, while 7 countries did not ratify the PA at the time. This study hereafter examines the PA treatment effect by designing a difference-in-differences technique between (2015) and (2018). The results reveal that 47 African countries that ratified the PA together have reduced carbon emissions intensity (CE) by about 80.76% of the pledge. The implication is that based on the NDCs' pledge to reduce emissions by 32% in 2030, African countries avoided emissions by approximately 26% by 2018. The study also analyses which policy measures assisted in CE reduction, showing renewable and clean energy. This suggests that African countries to the PA ratification have not over-ambitiously increased CE in their pursuit of economic growth and development. We further estimate carbon efficiency (CEE) as a total-factor analysis. It indicates that the 47 African countries' ratification of the PA has contributed to improving CEE. Thus, the economic productivity of the factor inputs relative to those which did not ratify at the time. The results suggest that the countries that ratified the PA have a carbon efficiency reduction potential of 23.47%, while those that declined have a wider gap of 77.77%. The inferred conclusions is that countries which declined the PA ratification or later withdrawal will increase emissions and hence leading to climate consequences. The authors propose insightful, targeted policies toward achieving efficient climate goals in Africa via integrated economic and environmental measures.