Ardennes Campaign Simulation (ARCAS)

Abstract

Abstract : The Ardennes Campaign Simulation (ARCAS) Study was performed to improve the credibility of the Stochastic Concepts Evaluation Model(STOCEM) simulation by comparing a STOCEM simulation of the WW II Ardennes campaign of 1944-45 with historical campaign results. Historical campaign data had been developed from archival sources into a computerized data base denoted as the Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base (ACSDB). The initial positions, configuration, strengths,compositions, and availabilities of forces for the campaign, as depicted in the ACSDB, were used to define the STOCEM force laydown for ARCAS. Simulation results (front-line movement, major system losses, and casualties) are compared with historical results from the ACSDB. Stochastic variability of average model outcomes is also quantified in terms of confidence limits and bounds. The comparison of simulation results with history is used to develop guidelines for algorithmic changes which improve model credibility of STOCEM. Insights on model verification and validation (V&V) are also developed.