Arctic shipping emissions inventories and future scenarios

J J Corbett,J A Silberman,S Harder,J J Winebrake,D A Lack,M Gold

doi:10.5194/acp-10-9689-2010

Abstract

Abstract. This paper presents 5 km×5 km Arctic emissions inventories of important greenhouse gases, black carbon and other pollutants under existing and future (2050) scenarios that account for growth of shipping in the region, potential diversion traffic through emerging routes, and possible emissions control measures. These high-resolution, geospatial emissions inventories for shipping can be used to evaluate Arctic climate sensitivity to black carbon (a short-lived climate forcing pollutant especially effective in accelerating the melting of ice and snow), aerosols, and gaseous emissions including carbon dioxide. We quantify ship emissions scenarios which are expected to increase as declining sea ice coverage due to climate change allows for increased shipping activity in the Arctic. A first-order calculation of global warming potential due to 2030 emissions in the high-growth scenario suggests that short-lived forcing of ~4.5 gigagrams of black carbon from Arctic shipping may increase global warming potential due to Arctic ships' CO2 emissions (~42 000 gigagrams) by some 17% to 78%. The paper also presents maximum feasible reduction scenarios for black carbon in particular. These emissions reduction scenarios will enable scientists and policymakers to evaluate the efficacy and benefits of technological controls for black carbon, and other pollutants from ships.

Highlights

Dramatic decline of Arctic sea ice has been observed over the past few decades, culminating in a record minimum sea ice extent of 4.28 million km2 in 2007 (∼10 million in 1970) (NSIDC, 2007)
Assuming similarity among Arctic shipping reported by other nations, this agreement is considered to be strong for transport ship emissions described by these data
Black carbon emissions are expected to increase without control requirements, along with CO2; NOx controls under International Maritime Organization (IMO) legislation will help level emissions growth into the 2020–2030 decade but will be outstripped by growth in shipping activity

Summary

Introduction

Dramatic decline of Arctic sea ice has been observed over the past few decades, culminating in a record minimum sea ice extent of 4.28 million km in 2007 (∼10 million in 1970) (NSIDC, 2007). This decline in Arctic sea ice has re-ignited interest in efforts to establish new trade passages, raising the possibility of economically viable trans-Arctic shipping as well as increasing access to regional resources and spurring growth in localized shipping supporting natural resource extraction and tourism (ACIA, 2004; Jakobson, 2010; Westcott, 2007). At present in-Arctic ship emissions make up a relatively small proportion of global shipping emissions, there are region-specific effects from substances such as BC and ozone (O3) which are becoming increasingly important to quantify and understand.

Results

Discussion

Conclusion