Arctic or North Atlantic Oscillation? Arguments based on the principal component analysis methodology

Abstract

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) appears as the leading unrotated mode of principal component analysis (PCA) of monthly mean sea level pressure anomalies, whereas the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) results from rotated PCA, regardless of the number of PCs rotated. Three criteria are employed to decide whether the interpretation in terms of the NAO or AO should be preferred: the degree of simple structure, the similarity between the PC loadings and correlation/covariance maps, and the sensitivity to spatial subsampling. All these criteria favour, to a different extent, the interpretation in terms of the NAO. This is further supported by more general arguments. Therefore, the statistical arguments suggest that in interpreting the Northern Hemisphere circulation variability, the sectorial view, i.e. the NAO, should be preferred to the hemispheric view, i.e. the AO. Our analysis supports the idea expressed in other studies that the AO is rather a statistical artifact.