Arctic oil and gas offshore projects: how to forecast their future

Abstract

Development of Arctic oil and gas resources is relevant due to the strategic importance of hydrocarbons, as well as Arctic territories as a whole for our country. The prospects for the Arctic shelf are related, first of all, to the development of domestic available mineral resources, the socio-economic development of the Arctic region, the maintenance of innovative activity of Russian industries, the strengthening of international positions of the country, the creation of industrial growth centers in the northern territories. Prospects for Arctic oil and gas resources development remain unclear today due to the high degree of uncertainty about external (especially macroeconomics and politics) and internal (project) environment factors. This fact makes it necessary to develop scientifically sound approaches to predicting the development of the Arctic shelf oil and gas resource. This paper considered the existing forecasts of oil production on the Arctic shelf, highlighted the specific features of forecasting the prospects for Arctic shelf projects implementation, considered the peculiarities of the application of statistical and expert forecasting methods. On the basis of the example of oil price forecasting, as a key indicator affecting the prospects of offshore projects, it was concluded that there are limited possibility of using statistical methods and the need to use expert approaches. It has been determined that in order to create a holistic approach to forecasting the future of Arctic offshore oil and gas projects, a comprehensive algorithm based on the use of existing forecasting methods and their reasonable combination, taking into account the peculiarities of predicted systems and indicators, is necessary.