Abstract
The nature of US–China relations is changing and evolving in a new direction, with past differences becoming more acute while new areas emerge, such as the Arctic region, intensifying the US–China security dilemma. The rapidly changing climate and subsequent “opening” of the Arctic has given rise to China’s emergence as a major influence within the region. This chapter discusses how abrupt climate change, in combination with Chinese actions in the Arctic, could create unpredictable black swan events that undermine US and regional security. This chapter provides an analysis of China’s Arctic objectives using black swan and weak signal theories as well as the methodology of horizon scanning technique. Finally, it highlights possible scenarios of China’s impact on the Arctic in the future
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