Arctic influence on subseasonal midlatitude prediction

Abstract

AbstractForecast experiments with the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts model with and without relaxation of the Arctic troposphere toward reanalysis data are carried out in order to explore the influence that improved Arctic forecasts during wintertime would have on the skill of medium‐range and extended‐range prediction of 500 hPa geopotential height in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. It turns out that the largest midlatitude improvements are found over eastern Europe, northern Asia, and North America; no discernible impact is found over the North Atlantic and North Pacific, where midlatitude and tropical dynamics appear to be more important. The strength of the linkage between the Arctic and the midlatitudes is found to be flow dependent, with anomalous northerly wind leading to a stronger Arctic influence. Finally, the results are discussed in the context of the possible impact of Arctic sea ice decline on midlatitude weather and climate.