Arctic Greening Trends: Change Points in Satellite-Derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Indexes and Their Correlation with Climate Variables over the Last Two Decades

Abstract

In this study, we utilized NDVI data from the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) alongside climatic variables obtained from a reanalyzed dataset to analyze Arctic greening during the summer months (June–September) of the last two decades. This investigation entailed a detailed analysis of these changes across various temporal scales. The data indicated a continuous trend of Arctic greening, evidenced by a 1.8% per decade increment in the NDVI. Notably, significant change points were identified in June 2012 and September 2013. A comparative assessment of NDVI pre- and post-these inflection points revealed an elongation of the Arctic greening trend. Furthermore, an anomalous increase in NDVI of 2% per decade was observed, suggesting an acceleration in greening. A comprehensive analysis was conducted to decipher the correlation between NDVI, temperature, and energy budget parameters to elucidate the underlying causes of these change points. Although the correlation between these variables was relatively low throughout the summer months, a distinct pattern emerged when these periods were dissected and examined in the context of the identified change points. Preceding the change point, a strong correlation (approximately 0.6) was observed between all variables; however, this correlation significantly diminished after the change point, dropping to less than half. This shift implies an introduction of additional external factors influencing the Arctic greening trend after the change point. Our findings provide foundational data for estimating the tipping point in Arctic terrestrial ecosystems. This is achieved by integrating the observed NDVI change points with their relationship with climatic variables, which are essential in comprehensively understanding the dynamics of Arctic climate change, particularly with alterations in tundra vegetation.