Architectonics of the Analysis and Information System "Anti-Crisis"

A A Kuklin,L A Korshunov,S A Okhotnikov

doi:10.15826/recon.2016.2.2.017

Abstract

This article presents a schematic diagram of the «Anticrisis» information analysis system, which aims at a comprehensive assessment of the parameters of the economic security of the Subjects of the Russian Federation while taking into account diverse risks, threats and the forecasting thereof. The schema re ects the interaction of the individual software modules that it comprises. It describes the integration of the modules with a uni ed database management system: access to the database, automatic backup and restore of databases in real-time and transmission of data over an open channel using modern encryption algorithms. The basic units of the system consist in: a unit for diagnosing the state of economic security; a unit for the welfare of the individual and residential area; a unit for extremism; a correlation unit; a modelling unit for the forecasting of the security of Subjects of the Russian Federation. As part of the simulation unit, a primary generalised mathematical model, based on a system of nonlinear differential equations, designed to take account of the correction factors, as well as taking into account all types of interaction indicators, is provided. The main types optimisation problems of interaction metrics are compiled using generalised models. Forecasts from 2016 to 2020 are generated on the basis of constructed optimisation propositions.

Highlights

When creating any software system, it is always necessary to isolate the main core in which any given object will be analysed
For a mathematical description of the interaction of the five indicators, we have proposed the following system of non-linear, heterogeneous differential equations in general terms:
Probabilistic trajectories are obtained on the basis of the stationary probability density function (14), i.e., a value is selected for normalised estimates corresponding to 5 % of the "tails" of the distribution (Fig. 5)

Summary

Introduction

When creating any software system, it is always necessary to isolate the main core (main part) in which any given object will be analysed. When forecasting, a normalised indicator taking risks into account is calculated (Fig. 3). Dynamics of change of five major indicators, describes the well-being of the individual and of the areas of residence according to two models.

Results

Conclusion