Architecting the metabolic reprogramming survival risk framework in LUAD through single-cell landscape analysis: three-stage ensemble learning with genetic algorithm optimization

Abstract

Recent studies have increasingly revealed the connection between metabolic reprogramming and tumor progression. However, the specific impact of metabolic reprogramming on inter-patient heterogeneity and prognosis in lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) still requires further exploration. Here, we introduced a cellular hierarchy framework according to a malignant and metabolic gene set, named malignant & metabolism reprogramming (MMR), to reanalyze 178,739 single-cell reference profiles. Furthermore, we proposed a three-stage ensemble learning pipeline, aided by genetic algorithm (GA), for survival prediction across 9 LUAD cohorts (n = 2066). Throughout the pipeline of developing the three stage-MMR (3 S-MMR) score, double training sets were implemented to avoid over-fitting; the gene-pairing method was utilized to remove batch effect; GA was harnessed to pinpoint the optimal basic learner combination. The novel 3 S-MMR score reflects various aspects of LUAD biology, provides new insights into precision medicine for patients, and may serve as a generalizable predictor of prognosis and immunotherapy response. To facilitate the clinical adoption of the 3 S-MMR score, we developed an easy-to-use web tool for risk scoring as well as therapy stratification in LUAD patients. In summary, we have proposed and validated an ensemble learning model pipeline within the framework of metabolic reprogramming, offering potential insights for LUAD treatment and an effective approach for developing prognostic models for other diseases.