Archetypes and change in wildfire risk perceptions, behaviours and intentions among adults in Tasmania, Australia

Abstract

Background Anthropogenic climate change globally increases wildfire risk. Understanding how wildfire threats impact community-wide risk perceptions and response options will critically inform resilience education strategies. Aim To gain an increased understanding of wildfire risk perceptions and self-evacuation intentions among residents in the wildfire-prone state of Tasmania, Australia. Methods We co-designed survey questions with stakeholders from emergency management, health and community recovery, using a computer-aided telephone interview to survey residents over 18 years of age. Numerical classification analysis, linear regression and descriptive statistics were used to analyse survey data. Results We identified four archetypes – the ‘immediate leaver’, ‘prepared stayer’, ‘unprepared leaver’ and ‘informed leaver’, each with distinct sociodemographic characteristics. Key variables were gender, age, location and income, with women most likely to leave and lower-income householders from rural areas most likely to stay. Previous wildfire experience and owning a home were significantly associated with increased preparedness actions. Compared to 2016, we found a significant increase in the proportion of residents intending to leave their property, with rural men least likely and urban women most likely to leave. Implications Recent education campaigns have likely driven increases in wildfire threat-related self-evacuation, yet the existence of distinct archetypes argues for more tailored messaging and education programs.