Arbitrage Strategy Based on DHS Pricing Model

Abstract

The Daniel-Hirshleifer-Sun (DHS) is a three-factor model based on the investors psychology. It supplements the market factors of the CAPM model with two behavioral factors that capture commonalities in mispricing resulting from psychological biases. The DHS method focuses on two psychological biases affecting asset prices: overconfidence and limited attention. According to Daniel, Hirshleifer, and Sun, overconfidence in the investor tends to induce commonality in long-horizon mispricing.In contrast, the inattention of the investor tends to induce commonality in short-horizon mispricing. In this strategy, assets are priced according to the DHS model, and the unexplained return generated from this model is traded. According to the back-test, the explanation power of the DHS model is limited in Chinses market. As a result, the arbitrage strategy based on this model cannot generate a decent return in the long run. However, this strategy generates a significant positive return in turbulent market conditions. During these periods, investors tend to panic, and their psychology is especially unstable, so the two behavioral factors can explain the return efficiently.