Après moi le déluge

Abstract

After the 1992 election, President George H.W. Bush gave the new presidentelect, Bill Clinton, a surprise gift - significant participation in the United Nations intervention in Somalia. This decision haunted the Clinton administration, producing an early foreign policy catastrophe in October 1993 with the downing of American helicopters and the resulting battle of Mogadishu. These events constrained Clinton's foreign policies towards Rwanda and Bosnia and shaped perceptions of American resolve, including in the eyes of Osama bin Laden and Saddam Hussein.1President Barack Obama understands what he is getting himself into better than Clinton did, as the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have been a central part ofthe 2008 campaign rather than a footnote. Still, while he has entered the oval office with his eyes wide open, Obama faces far greater challenges because ofthe commitments and mistakes made by President George W. Bush and his administration. At the moment, it appears that events on the ground in Iraq and Obama's promises are converging towards a reduced American presence. However, as I suggest below, this may be a fragile reed upon which to lean the future of American foreign policy. Afghanistan, as all are recognizing lately, is in trouble. Obama has promised to take advantage ofthe reductions ofthe US effort in Iraq to shift attention and resources to the US and NATO effort in Afghanistan. The other potential and ongoing interventions in the world were largely absent from the campaign, as Iraq and Afghanistan crowded out Kosovo, Darfur, and other hotspots. Indeed, the limited attention span of American leaders and media has important implications for Canada, as we shall see below.In this article, I first briefly discuss the legacy that Obama is inheriting, particularly the decisions made by Bush, Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld, and other key actors that will limit his options. Next, I review a variety of constraints that limit the power of any president but will be particularly challenging for the next one. I then address the promises made by Obama as he ran for president, considering which changes are most realistic both in terms of being implemented and being successful. I conclude by considering how this change in administrations in the US will affect Canada's own effort in Afghanistan and potential interventions in the future.NO BIGGER MESSIt is hard to imagine a president leaving office with a worse situation than George W Bush. The United States is not only engaged in two difficult wars and a deep economic crisis, but it has to deal with a key ally that is not only a nuclear weapons state but a failing one - Pakistan. The focus here will be on the two ongoing wars, although I will briefly consider Pakistan, Kosovo, and Darfur, as they are on the back burner of American foreign policy.Barack Obama frequently asserted during the campaign that the US dropped the ball in Afghanistan after it became distracted with Iraq. This is perhaps understating the mistakes made by the US in Afghanistan. While distraction was clearly part ofthe problem, as resources and attention became focused on Iraq, it was more than that. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld was opposed to any kind of nation-building effort. He said that the US did not need to build a stable Afghanistan, but would merely have to return every once in a while to disrupt any buildup of terrorist infrastructure. While this might have been hyperbole, Rumsfeld actively opposed efforts in Afghanistan beyond counterinsurgency. When the US commander of operation Enduring Freedom, Lt. General B arno, began to engage in a counterinsurgency campaign, which involved more than hunting down al Qaeda, Rumsfeld reengaged and subjected B arno to strict oversight to make sure he did not overstep his bounds.2 As a result, the development of Afghan capacity was delayed. Only in 2005-06 did NATO spread out throughout the country to begin to assist the development of Afghan governance. …