Approaching Regional Depopulation in Serbia

Abstract

AbstractWhat would demographic future of Serbia look like if the recently adopted pronatalist policy became successful? How the change in migration patterns related to the Serbia’s expected EU accession can affect population dynamics of the country? These emerging demographic issues are discussed in the framework of the scenario-based population projection disaggregated at the district level. The declining and ageing trend of the total and working-age population in Serbia is strongly selective with respect to regional and sub-regional levels, even in the optimistic scenario of the successfully implemented pronatalist policy. Moreover, a resurgence in the number of live births can be expected only in districts along the central transport corridor, which connects the most developed and populous urban centres having a positive migration balance. On the other hand, the predominantly less developed border areas facing long-term out-migration will remain endangered. The results suggest that the policy measures have to be implemented much longer than the projection horizon shown, that is, in a strategic way, because their initial reach is limited to the improvement of the age structure, while the positive impact on the total population can be expected only in the decades after recovering the fertile contingent.KeywordsSub-national population projection Pronatalist policy Migration transition Migration estimatesDemographic scenarios Depopulation