Approaches to the Control of Infectious Disease

Abstract

Maurice Bartlett's work on the mathematical theory of epidemics, recurrent epidemics and endemicity over the years 1953–66 has helped to stimulate a wide range of applied studies of practical importance. This paper reviews contemporary trends in the control of infectious disease. Historically, the subject started in response to very practical problems, but subsequent developments showed an increasingly marked divergence between general theory and practical applications. In recent years, however, improvements in parameter estimation, asymptotic and stochastic approximation, the modelling of individual diseases, advances in computerized simulations, the construction of resource allocation models, the use of control theory, etc., have been gradually leading to a synthesis of the utmost importance to public health action. Models can now be fitted to specific field data; alternative intervention strategies involving immunization, prophylaxis or treatment can be evaluated; and the incorporation of realistic epidemiological models in a wider decision-oriented system dynamics setting may soon help to solve broader strategic problems on the policy level.