Approaches to Decision Making in Foreign Policy: Literature Review

Kristine Zaidi

doi:10.11648/j.jpsir.20210402.14

Abstract

There is a substantive amount of literature on decision-making in public policy. Most of this is on decision-making in domestic settings and less so on decision-making in foreign policy. As the field continues to evolve, offering more disciplinary perspectives, from political science to neuroscience, there is increasing scholarly interest in how the science of decision has moved forward. Understanding the process of decision-making has pre-occupied thinkers for centuries. The complexity of pluralistic societies, multiplied by the additional layer of international interactions, characterise the complexity, as too the gravity, of the tasks for contemporary analyst. Through this literature analysis, the author demonstrates that the general principles in decision-making are ubiquitous regardless of the decisions. The role and influence of structure and agency have varied over time and lead to diverse predictive outcomes, and equally, the varying reflective analyses. The paper demonstrates that while division lines on inputs from the different disciplines and bodies of literature are blurred, the science of decision hinges on universal factors. These include context, the relationship between agency and structure in the system paradigm, choices, behaviours, cognitive abilities and constraints of individual decision-makers, and the possession and development of the capability to deliver on policy.

Highlights

The emergence of a decision, whether that is foreign policy, business or any other sphere of activity, implies the end of one process – that of arriving at that decision, and the beginning of another, typically, the strategy and planning necessary for deliberate action to advance policy
This paper looks at foreign policy decision-making and provides a focussed analysis of the literature and its contribution to contemporary approaches to decision-making in public policy
This section will look at the role of domestic political dynamics and stakes in foreign policy decision-making that forms an important part of the context that every analyst needs to consider when analysing decisions and actions of actors on the international stage

Summary

Introduction

The emergence of a decision, whether that is foreign policy, business or any other sphere of activity, implies the end of one process – that of arriving at that decision, and the beginning of another, typically, the strategy and planning necessary for deliberate action to advance policy. The foundation of contemporary decision models in business and public policy have evolved from the classical period to the estimates process, combining analytical and mathematical modelling, as witnessed in the modern era This synthesis of economic models and rational decision models was increasingly applied to foreign policy during the Cold War, where economic models [6] and analytical models [7] were further synthesised [8] to inform international relations and comparative politics. The faculty and right to the decision were associated with personalities and most typically the heroic leader, as evidenced in the works of Aristotle and later Machiavelli While this moderated to some extent in the classical Roman model where democracy, aristocracy and monarchy were fused [10], it was not until the 20th century that this paradigm shifted from individual agency towards a dominant role of formalised structures. With the resurgence of nationalistic politics, there is appears to be a transition or at the very least a concurrence of structure and agency as prime movers in the decision-making process [12]

Agency and Process

The Intersections Between Foreign and Domestic Policy Decision Making

The Synthesis of Decision Thought and Behaviour

Decision Making as People’s Process

Conclusion