Approaches to Assessing Regional Differentiation of Mortality from Coronavirus

Abstract

The study aims to substantiate statistical and methodological approaches that allow the most accurate measurement of the contribution of the COVID-19 pandemic to the level and dynamics of the total mortality in the Russian Federation (in 2019–2020), and to assess the regional differentiation of mortality from the pandemic. The relevance of the study stems from revealing the role of some factors in the rise of mortality rates in Russia (according to data for 2020).In the study, the authors used regression analysis with a set of factors determining pandemic-induced differences in changes in mortality rates across regions of the Russian Federation as a basic analytical tool. The information base of the study is a set of official statistics data, as well as regional representative results of sample socio-demographic surveys of Rosstat.The authors used a set of regression models to test the hypotheses about the influence of a combination of demographic and socioeconomic factors on the increase in the total mortality rate. A repeating set of factors affecting the increase in mortality in different models may indicate the stability of the influence of the following factors: the share of people employed in the service sector, migration turnover, the presence in a region of a city of 500 thou. inhabitants or more, and the death rate from COVID-19. The set of factors influencing the increase in mortality differs by type of settlement and by gender.The article argues for the possibility of using the crude mortality rate as a dependent variable in assessing the causes of mortality growth. A significant part of the regional variation in the increase in the total mortality rate in 2020 in Russian regions is explained by the characteristics of the demographic structure of the region (the share of elderly, the size of the household, the share of people with cancer), as well as the high population density and frequency of social contacts (especially in cities). Rise of COVID-19 related mortality rate had impact on the increase of the total urban mortality rate but did not lead to any significant growth in rural mortality rate.The problem of the need to improve the information base for the selection of objective indicators and methods for analyzing the contribution of the COVID-19 epidemic to the level and dynamics of mortality is emphasized. An important methodological conclusion relevant for further research is the need to search for instrumental variables for COVID-19 related mortality indicators, due to the correlation of factors with the total mortality rate and with the mortality rate from COVID-19, as well as the need for further analysis of changes in the national health care system and its funding amid the pandemic.