APPROACHES TO ASSESSING FACTORS OF CONSUMER BEHAVIOR

Abstract

To improve the efficiency of management of socio-economic systems at any level, it is necessary to conduct a permanent comprehensive analysis of the social well-being of the population. One of the directions of such research is the study of factors that determine the behavior of consumers. Forecasting consumer behavior plays a significant role in shaping economic policy. Therefore, the development and justification of means and methods of socially significant state regulation of consumption and consumer behavior of the population, taking into account its main components, is always relevant. The purpose of this work is to analyze the main macroeconomic indexes that identify the features of consumer behavior and the mood of the country's residents and subjective assessment of the economic situation with great certainty. In order to study consumer behavior, the borrowed methods from different fields of knowledge – sociology, psychology and ecology are used, in addition to general scientific and analytical-prognostic ones. The most used in everyday practice are such methods of obtaining primary information as observation, experiment, focusing and survey. Special indicators are used to predict consumer behavior in the world practice: consumer sentiment index, consumer expectations index, consumer confidence index. These indicators, called indexes of consumer optimism, represent leading economic indicators, which correct and clarify existing forecasts of the development of the economy. All these indicators are calculated based on data obtained by the method of mass survey of citizens. With apparent identity, these indexes are still different. The use of a set of special indicators for predicting consumer behavior allows a deeper and broader look at the problem under study. All indicators are calculated based on representative samples according to the methods tested in the world for a long time. The paper considers the specifics of these indicators in Russia and abroad, describes the methods of calculating the main indexes. The analysis of the dynamics of aggregate and partial indexes is based on the secondary analysis of Rosstat (Russian Federal State Statistics Service) and Levada Center data. This analysis showed that all indexes have negative values, which indicates the predominance of pessimistic attitudes during the study period. The results of surveys conducted in the 4th quarter of 2014–2017 show the prevalence of negative attitudes and expectations of the population during the study period. It is determined that the value of the consumer sentiment index is closest in value to the index of favorable conditions for large purchases; differences with other indicators of Rosstat are more significant. Since the 2nd quarter of 2016, there has been a tendency to increase all indicators. The share of negative evaluation options has been declining since the second quarter of 2016, but the share of optimistic opinions has not changed. In general, the growth of consumer confidence is due to a decrease in the number of pessimistic respondents, not to an increase in consumer optimism. The obtained data allow us to quantify the processes of formation of consumer behavior and ultimately study the overall climate in the economy of the region and the country as a whole. Monitoring of consumer attitudes and expectations should be an information base for substantiating the content of social policy, for determining its main directions and performance criteria.