Applying the structural causal model framework for observational causal inference in ecology

Abstract

AbstractEcologists are often interested in answering causal questions from observational data but generally lack the training to appropriately infer causation. When applying statistical analysis (e.g., generalized linear model) on observational data, common statistical adjustments can often lead to biased estimates between variables of interest due to processes such as confounding, overcontrol, and collider bias. To overcome these limitations, we present an overview of structural causal modeling (SCM), an emerging causal inference framework that can be used to determine cause‐and‐effect relationships from observational data. The SCM framework uses directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) to visualize researchers' assumptions about the causal structure of a system or process under study. Following this, a DAG‐based graphical rule known as the backdoor criterion can be applied to determine statistical adjustments (or lack thereof) required to determine causal relationships from observational data. In the presence of unobserved confounding variables, an additional rule called the frontdoor criterion can be employed to determine causal effects. Here, we use simulated ecological examples to review how the backdoor and frontdoor criteria can return accurate causal estimates between variables of interest, as well as how biases can arise when these criteria are not used. We further provide an overview of studies that have applied the SCM framework in ecology. SCM, along with its application of DAGs, has been widely used in other disciplines to make valid causal inferences from observational data. Their use in ecology holds tremendous potential for quantifying causal relationships and investigating a range of ecological questions without randomized experiments.