Applying the mathematical theory of stochastic processes to lunar and planetary science: the ancient oceans on Mars case

Abstract

The Mathematical Statistics Theory (MST) and the Mathematical Theory of Stochastic Processes (MTSP) are different branches of the more general Mathematical Probability Theory (MPT) that represents different aspects of some physical processes we can analyze using mathematics. Each model of a stochastic process according to the MTSP can provide one or more interpretations in the MST domain. The importance of MTSP is that each such interpretation can provide large amount of new information. While large body of work on the impact crater statistics according to MST has already been done, it is yet to be investigated as to how we can model a stochastic process according to MTSP; for example, bombardment of the planetary surface or something else in a Lunar and Planetary Science (LPS) domain. In order to show possible achievements, the possible existence of a Martian ocean was chosen as a query that could be addressed through computations using presumptions according to MTSP, including probability of existence as well as lateral and vertical extent and duration of time. While the presumptions for this particular case will also be addressed in certain degree, this will be done primarily to show complexities of some physical process that can be modeled, rather than to prove correctness of the concrete values computed here. While this in itself can be the objective in some future work toward the formal proof of the probability, extent, and timing of oceans on Mars, the basic idea here is to show the basic principles of MTSP, and its potential for addressing LPS-related phenomena. Here, I attempt to show how this approach can: (1) provide large amounts of previously unknown information about physical processes on the surface of the planet, (2) lead to a better understanding of the processes that have shaped the surface of the planet, and/or (3) help constrain the amount of resurfacing. Coupled with other current methodologies, MTSP can result in a better understanding of the history of Mars, as well as other lunar and planetary bodies.