Applying Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis to Forest Ecosystem Management with Both Cardinal and Ordinal Criteria

Abstract

Abstract Multicriteria decision analysis is applied to ecosystem management planning in a forest landscape. Ten alternative action plans were evaluated employing five criteria. For some criteria, cardinal measures with their associated uncertainties were obtained. For other criteria, only ordinal (ranking) information was available. The Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis with Ordinal criteria (SMAA-O) method was used, as it accommodates both cardinal and ordinal data. This is the first application of SMAA methods to forest management. SMAA-O represents inaccurate or uncertain cardinal criteria measurements by a joint probability distribution. Ordinal data is converted into stochastic cardinal data by simulating mappings between ordinal and cardinal scales that preserve the given rankings. At the same time, the unknown or partly known preferences of the decision maker are simulated by choosing weights randomly from appropriate distributions. The main results of the analysis are “acceptability indices” that describe the variety of different weights that support an alternative for a given rank. The special characteristics of SMAA-O are best utilized in problems involving uncertainty and where both cardinal and ordinal data are to be employed. It also serves well as an analysis tool in interactive planning processes, especially when criteria weights are not known or they are difficult to assess.