Applying Spot Rate Forecast Technique in Estimating Energy Price Uncertainties

Abstract

This paper presents a new version of methodology based on spot rate forecasts technique under market expectations theory (term structure), for estimating the uncertainty unit price of energy during the unavailability of energy and compares it to the original discrete price probability methodology presented by the paper entitled: Determining rational redundancy of 500-kV reactors in transmission system using a probability-based economic analysis approach -BCTCs practice. The basis of spot rate forecasts method is to assume that the market expectations implied by the current spot rate curve will be fulfilled, and heuristic representativeness characteristics are followed; this method has the capability to predict the following cycle of energy price under uncertainties (similar method in logically predicting future spot rate curve). The methodology of determining a rational redundancy level of power system equipment based on coordination among the total transfer capability (TTC) in the transmission system and the estimation of random equipment failures remain the same. The spot rate forecasts methodology is only applied to the electric energy market information, where the price of energy is involved. The result indicates that spot rate forecast methodology is another technique of estimating the uncertainty of energy price besides the discrete probability technique