Applying Seasonal Climate Forecasts in Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems — A Synthesis

Abstract

The chapters contributed to this book express a wealth of knowledge and experience on generating and applying seasonal climate forecasts in agricultural and natural ecosystems. In the introductory section the impact of climate variability and the potential for using seasonal forecasts in managing climate risks were outlined. It was made clear that climate forecasts must be phrased as probabilistic statements. The concept of a general integrated systems approach to applying forecasts across a range of scale from farm to region and nation was introduced. This concept focussed on deriving the targeted information needs of decision-makers in a manner that captured the value of the climate forecast. It was suggested that, as the climate forecast only acquired value when decisions were modified in response to it, then a focus on decision-making in the target systems was an appropriate basis to structure the contributions to this book. While systems across the range of scale involved diverse decision-makers and issues ranging from resource management to policy, the general approach was relevant in all cases. The aim of this paper is to synthesise key issues from those contributions and to discuss them in a way that might guide future activities.The contributions reviewed developments in seasonal climate forecasting and presented details of on-going work aimed at applying climate forecasts in relation to farm, regional, and national scale agricultural decisions and possibilities in natural systems. Numerous issues were raised from the insights presented. Five key issues are presented and discussed here as they represent the most common threads. These issues are — Understanding and predicting responses of the target system is critical Applications are about managing risks Information must be relevant to decision-makers Communication of probabilistic information can be problematic Connecting agricultural and climate models needs to be considered In discussing these key issues the major general need was a focus on implications of decision options in the target system in a way that the unexplained variability of the imprecise forecast was retained so that risk implications for modified decisions could be explored transparently and communicated simply and effectively. It was suggested that coupling of the key players in the entire applications milieu - practitioners, analysts, modellers, researchers - was essential for future progress in this regard. The various players each have their own models and behaviours, which contribute some unique elements. While these models have a degree of utility in their own right, it is argued that the dialogue they generate among the disparate players is equally important to effective applications of climate forecasting.The degree of connectivity required among key players requires an environment where collaboration is encouraged and facilitated. This environment has tended to prevail in Australia and complements the integrated systems approach to effective applications of seasonal climate forecasting that has developed. It is suggested, however, that nurturing this emerging culture of connectivity is paramount for future progress.