Abstract
Travel demand models have been developed and refined over the years to consider a characteristic normally found in travel data: spatial autocorrelation. Another important feature of travel demand data is its multivariate nature. However, regarding the public transportation demand, there is a lack of multivariate spatial models that consider the scarce nature of travel data, which generally are expensive to collect, and also need an appropriate level of detail. Thus, the main aim of this study was to estimate the Boarding variable along a bus line from the city of São Paulo - Brazil, by means of a multivariate geostatistical modeling at the bus stop level. As specific objectives, a comparative analysis conducted by applying Universal Kriging, Ordinary Kriging and Ordinary Least Squares Regression for the same travel demand variable was proposed. From goodness-of-fit measures, the results indicated that Geostatistics is a competitive tool comparing to classical modeling, emphasizing the multivariate interpolator Universal Kriging. Therefore, three main contributions can be highlighted: (1) the methodological advance of using a multivariate geostatistical approach, at the bus stop level, on public transportation demand modeling; (2) the benefits provided by the models regarding the land use and bus network planning; and (3) resource savings of field surveys for collecting travel data.
Highlights
Introduction and BackgroundIncreasing concern about the environment and a discussion about sustainability have strongly influenced public policies around the world
A comparative analysis conducted by applying Universal Kriging, Ordinary Kriging and Ordinary Least Squares Regression for the same variable under analysis is proposed
These data were obtained from the sampled households of the 2017 O/D Survey that were within the catchment area; area, in hectares, of the 16 predominant land use classes according to the shapefile of predominant land use in 2016 (GeoSampa), which is disaggregated at the block level; and number of roads and intersections, length and road density inside each catchment area, based on the São Paulo road system (Open Street Map) shapefile
Summary
Increasing concern about the environment and a discussion about sustainability have strongly influenced public policies around the world. In Brazil, law 12,587/2012, known as the Urban Mobility Law, points out that non-motorized and public transportation modes should be. How to cite this article: MARQUES, S.; PITOMBO, C. Applying multivariate geostatistics for transit ridership modeling at the bus stop level. Prioritized over motorized and individual ones, respectively. This determination recognizes Public Transportation (PT) as a promoter of sustainable development and social inclusion. In order to allow the supply and demand balance of this service, support of appropriate planning is needed to guarantee the properly work of the transportation system
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