Applying Multi-Sensor Satellite Data to Identify Key Natural Factors in Annual Livestock Change and Winter Livestock Disaster (Dzud) in Mongolian Nomadic Pasturelands

Abstract

In the present study, we tested the applicability of multi-sensor satellite data to account for key natural factors of annual livestock number changes in county-level soum districts of Mongolia. A schematic model of nomadic landscapes was developed and used to select potential drivers retrievable from multi-sensor satellite data. Three alternative methods (principal component analysis, PCA; stepwise multiple regression, SMR; and random forest machine learning model, RF) were used to determine the key drivers for livestock changes and Dzud outbreaks. The countrywide Dzud in 2010 was well-characterized by the PCA as cold with a snowy winter and low summer foraging biomass. The RF estimated the annual livestock change with high accuracy (R2 > 0.9 in most soums). The SMR was less accurate but provided better intuitive insights on the regionality of the key factors and its relationships with local climate and Dzud characteristics. Summer and winter variables appeared to be almost equally important in both models. The primary factors of livestock change and Dzud showed regional patterns: dryness in the south, temperature in the north, and foraging resource in the central and western regions. This study demonstrates a synergistic potential of models and satellite data to understand climate–vegetation–livestock interactions in Mongolian nomadic pastures.