Applying interval stability concept to empirical model of middle Pleistocene transition.

Abstract

Interval stability is a novel method for the study of complex dynamical systems, allowing for the estimation of their stability to strong perturbations. This method describes how large perturbation should be to disrupt the stable dynamical regime of the system (attractor). In our work, interval stability is used for the first time to study the properties of a real natural system: to analyze the stability of the earth's climate system during the last 2.6×106 years. The main abrupt shift in global climate during this period is the middle Pleistocene transition (MPT), which occurred about 1×106 years ago as a change of the periodicity of glacial cycles from 41 to 100 kyr. On the basis of the empirical nonlinear stochastic model proposed in our recent work, we demonstrate that the global climate stability to any perturbations decreases throughout the Pleistocene period (including the MPT), enhancing its response to fast (with a millennial scale or less) internal disturbances.