Abstract
The inherently unknown future development of a Nordic bio-economy was studied with four scenarios applied in an ecosystem service assessment framework. This framework couples CORINE land use cover with estimates of 15 final ecosystem services from the CICES 5.1 classification in biophysical and monetary terms. Current land use in two catchments, Lillebæk (83% cropland, area 4.7 km2, Denmark) and Ovre Haldenvassdraget (67% forest, 1006 km2, Norway) was compared with four scenarios for 2050. One scenario focusing on sustainability and environmental awareness led to considerable changes in land use and ecosystem service delivery (more diverse provisioning and higher value of regulating services, but not a higher total economic value), whereas the other three did not deviate markedly from the current scenario. Projected land use scenarios were verified with experts and stakeholder representatives. We conclude that the framework has sufficient resolution to show differences in service delivery among scenarios.
Highlights
The transition of Nordic societies away from fossil fuel dependence towards a stronger dependence on and a more diversified use of bioresources, those from forestry, is a move towards a state often referred to as ‘the bio-economy’ (Bugge et al 2016; Eyvindson et al 2018).Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.Such a future ‘bio-economy’ is inherently uncertain and may proceed along widely contrasting trajectories
Differences in projected land use distribution among most scenarios for the two catchments were comparatively limited (Fig. 2, upper panel, only NBP3 0 current (NBP0), 1, and 3 are shown), and only the most circular and sustainability-oriented scenario NBP1 led to a substantial redistribution of land use towards 2050, in both catchments
The summed TEV estimate is lower for NBP1 than for NBP0, as it is dominated by our estimate of forest net present value
Summary
The transition of Nordic societies away from fossil fuel dependence towards a stronger dependence on and a more diversified use of bioresources, those from forestry, is a move towards a state often referred to as ‘the bio-economy’ (Bugge et al 2016; Eyvindson et al 2018). Such a future ‘bio-economy’ is inherently uncertain and may proceed along widely contrasting trajectories. We will only briefly describe the different scenarios we use for the potentially divergent ways in which a bio-economical change in natural resource exploitation can develop in Nordic landscapes because they are the subject of Rakovic et al (2020)
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