Abstract
This research explores urban growth based scenarios for the city of Nairobi using a cellular automata urban growth model (UGM). African cities have experienced rapid urbanization over the last decade due to increased population growth and high economic activities. We used multi-temporal Landsat imageries for 1976, 1986, 2000 and 2010 to investigate urban land-use changes in Nairobi. Our UGM used data from urban land-use of 1986 and 2010, road data, slope data and exclusion layer. Monte-Carlo technique was used for model calibration and Multi Resolution Validation (MRV) technique for validation. Simulation of urban land-use was done up to the year 2030 when Kenya plans to attain Vision 2030. Three scenarios were explored in the urban modelling process; unmanaged growth with no restriction on environmental areas, managed growth with moderate protection, and a managed growth with maximum protection on forest, agricultural areas, and urban green. Thus alternative scenario development using UGM is useful for planning purposes so as to ensure sustainable development is achieved. UGM provides quantitative, visual, spatial and temporal information which aid policy and decision makers can make informed decisions.
Highlights
Sustainable planning is crucial for future development of cities
We used Nairobi, Kenya’s capital city as an example of a fast expanding African city to analyze the dynamics of land-use changes between 1986 and 2010, and to simulate urban growth into 2030 using cellular automata
Urban land-use maps from image classification were used alongside other datasets in modelling urban growth in Nairobi using urban growth model (UGM)
Summary
Sustainable planning is crucial for future development of cities. Over the last decade there has been large rural urban migration in African cities as people search for employment and better amenities. Remote sensing provides spatially consistent data sets that cover large areas with both high spatial detail and high temporal frequency [1] Such data sets are useful in land-use monitoring and simulation. Models based on cellular automata (CA) have been used over the last decades in simulating urban development growth and patterns [4]. For an urban model to be used in an area of interest it needs to be localised and this involves calibration This is done in order to make it adapt to the endogenous characteristics of the particular environment for simulation [4]. Urban models aid in making informed decisions on land-use planning in the context of future development. A cellular automata model was used to study land-use change and prediction of future trends in Nairobi as Kenya attains Vision 2030 [16]. The models were used to predict the future urban land-use development in the year 2030
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