Abstract
Data centres are a key infrastructure for the global digital economy, helping enable the EU “Digital Decade” by 2030. In 2015, data centres were estimated to consume 2.5% of EU electricity demand. In Ireland, the concentrated presence of data centres could consume 37% of national electricity demand by 2028. The uncertainty of data centre facility-level energy efficiency paired with the need to achieve a low-carbon economy pose significant challenge for generation and transmission network planning. This is the first paper to apply a model of technology diffusion with a national forecast of changes in Irish data centre electricity demand through more efficient liquid cooling. The methodology serves as a technology-agnostic resource for practitioners performing forecasts under uncertainty with limited information. Results suggest that technology adoption could lower national electricity demand by 0.81% if adopted by new plant from 2019 to 2028. Savings rise to 3.16% over the same period if adopted by new and existing data centres. Adoption would also lower related emissions by 4.70% and 23.04% over the same period across both scenarios, respectively. Results highlight substantial potential electricity and associated emissions savings available in the sector and suggest policy options to support a transition towards a low-carbon economy.
Highlights
It begins by contextualising this study within the framework of the Energy Efficiency Gap and specifies the model of technology diffusion which is applied to model sectoral electricity demand and related emissions (Section 2.1)
This research is motivated by the prominent role of data centres within the global digital economy and the significant pressure they exert on national energy demand on the pathway towards a low-carbon society
The presence of data centres is a particular challenge for certain economies, such as Ireland, that are already struggling to comply with EU targets for improving energy efficiency
Summary
Most economic agents struggle to predict the future. This makes it difficult for policy makers to be proactive and forward looking in their design of regulations and price controls. A classic example of this concept is how few could have predicted how reliant the modern economy would become on the internet as an engine for economic growth. The European Union has outlined its ambition to become a net-zero economy by 2050 [5]. The increasing prominence of data centres as a pillar of internet connectivity presents an important opportunity as part of the transition towards a lowcarbon economy
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