Applying a Hybrid Model of Markov Chain and Logistic Regression to Identify Future Urban Sprawl in Abouelreesh, Aswan: A Case Study

Abstract

Urban sprawl has become a very complex process, because it has many factors affecting its directions and values. The study of relative research shows that the driving forces that lead and redirect future urban sprawl require the application of a statistical method. In our study, logistic regressions were used to analyze and class the driving forces for urban sprawl. Identifying the driving forces, which is the most important step in predicting the future of urban sprawl in 2037, was performed using the cellular automata models. This study takes the Aswan area as a case study in the period from 2001 to 2013 by analyzing the official detailed plan and Google Earth historical imagery. Almost all data was prepared for logistic regression analysis using ArcGIS software and IDRISI® Selva. In our study, a hybrid model of the Markov chain and logistic regression models was applied to identify future urban sprawl in 2037. The findings of this paper simulate the increase in urban area over 24 years from 1.85 to 2.59 km2. These findings highlight the growing risks of urban sprawl and the difficulties opposing the sustainable urban development plans officially proposed for this area.