Abstract
The prediction of construction disaster is the basis of construction safety assessment and decision-making. Gray prediction is suitable for such kinds of system objects with few data, short time and little fluctuation, and Markov chain theory is just suitable for forecasting stochastic fluctuating dynamic process. By combining the advantages of both gray prediction and Markov chain theory, a new gray Markov model is proposed. Markov prediction is used to forecast the fluctuation along the tendency. Finally, the new model is applied to predict the construction disaster death toll of the china from 1999 to 2009. The results show that the new model not only discovers the trend of the construction disaster death toll but also overcomes the random fluctuation of data affecting precision.
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