Applications of Multiple Systems Estimation in Human Rights Research

Abstract

Multiple systems estimation (MSE) is becoming an increasingly common approach for exploratory study of underreported events in the field of quantitative human rights. In this context, it is used to estimate the number of people who died as a result of political unrest when it is believed that many of those who died or disappeared were never reported. MSE relies upon several assumptions, each of which may be slightly or significantly violated in particular applications. This article outlines the evolution of the application of MSE to human rights research through the use of three case studies: Guatemala, Peru, and Colombia. Each of these cases presents distinct challenges to the MSE method. Motivated by these applications, we describe new methodology for assessing the impact of violated assumptions in MSE. Our approach uses simulations to explore the cumulative magnitude of errors introduced by violation of the model assumptions at each stage in the analysis.