Abstract
The climate is a complex, chaotic system with many degrees of freedom. Attaining a deeper level of understanding of climate dynamics is an urgent scientific challenge, given the evolving climate crisis. In statistical physics, many-particle systems are studied using Large Deviation Theory (LDT). A great potential exists for applying LDT to problems in geophysical fluid dynamics and climate science. In particular, LDT allows for understanding the properties of persistent deviations of climatic fields from long-term averages and for associating them to low-frequency, large-scale patterns. Additionally, LDT can be used in conjunction with rare event algorithms to explore rarely visited regions of the phase space. These applications are of key importance to improve our understanding of high-impact weather and climate events. Furthermore, LDT provides tools for evaluating the probability of noise-induced transitions between metastable climate states. This is, in turn, essential for understanding the global stability properties of the system. The goal of this review is manifold. First, we provide an introduction to LDT. We then present the existing literature. Finally, we propose possible lines of future investigations. We hope that this paper will prepare the ground for studies applying LDT to solve problems encountered in climate science and geophysical fluid dynamics.
Highlights
Introduction and motivation1.1 The climate crisis: extreme events in a changing climateThe climate is a forced and dissipative nonlinear heterogeneous system composed by several subdomains, namely the atmosphere, the hydrosphere, the cryosphere, the soil, and the biosphere
Large Deviation Theory (LDT) imposes that, if we look at true extremes, with overwhelming probability the heatwaves we observe will take place, apart from small-scale spatio-temporal fluctuations, as a result of a well-defined large-scale atmospheric configuration, which is very rare in the standard statistics, but is typical if we consider the multitude of possible heatwaves with same intensity
Extreme Value Theory (EVT) has shown its potential for providing information on the fundamental properties of the dynamical system generating suitably defined extreme events [178]. This feature is being extensively used for providing a fresh outlook on the problem of understanding and characterising the predictability of the atmosphere [18,82,184], going beyond the more standard use of EVT for studying the tails of the distribution of meteo-climatic fields of interest [106,138]
Summary
The climate is a forced and dissipative nonlinear heterogeneous system composed by several subdomains, namely the atmosphere, the hydrosphere, the cryosphere, the soil, and the biosphere. Changes in the statistics of heatwaves are worrying, as more persistent and larger temperature fluctuations are possible as a result of changes in the properties of the low frequency variability of the atmosphere and of the properties of the soil. This effect compounds with the trend in the average temperature, leading to a greatly increased risk of such catastrophic events [50,210,238]. The scientific debate around extreme events attribution has relevant implications in terms of climate adaptation, risk assessment, public policy, infrastructural design, insurance instruments design, international relations, and even migration policies [135,199,239,251]
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