Applications of Initial Voyage Planning Decision Support System in the Context of Maritime Transport of the Northern Sea Route

Abstract

This chapter describes application of initial voyage planning and scheduling decision support model developed by the author. The most important variables of decision system, studied in previous chapters, include length of route, speed of vessel, date of opening and date of closing of ice-free transit zone. The most important for scheduling of voyage appeared proper determination of moment of opening of ice-free transit zone and thus determination of time of commence of voyage in port of departure. For this reason, a simulation was carried out in which the time of departure of vessel was changed each time. Russian long-term forecasts of ice navigation conditions were studied in order to determine possibility of using them for initial voyage planning and scheduling. Simulations of the system were carried out using technical and operational data of PANAMAX-type vessel (of a relatively deep draft) for the 2017 navigation season and two consecutive transit voyages through the NSR, i.e. “there and back”. The main goal of the voyage was to reach final destination port. Supplementary goal was to maintain continuity of vessel movement without having to stop and wait for opening the sea for ice-free navigation. Another supplementary criterion for achieving goal of voyage was not to use icebreakers. It resulted from a high price for icebreaker services, which would lead to significant reduction of economic effects of voyage. There were number of factors with a high level of unpredictability on the NSR described in previous chapters of this work. They influence decisions related primarily to date of beginning and end of availability of the NSR for vessels without ice strengthening, course and length of route as well as vessel speed in ice and ability of vessel to overcome ice. Based on results of this research, vessel’s route was determined at beginning of navigation season for first part of voyage towards east and at end of navigation season for second part of voyage in westerly direction. Navigational and economic results of forecasted voyages were shown in the tables. Results of simulation included required fuel reserve. Maximum capacity of fuel tanks on PANAMAX-type vessel allowed to get before voyage amount of fuel necessary for autonomous voyage in both directions without necessity to replenish fuel tanks on the NSR. Finally, the results of simulations for long-term NSR Administration forecast and statistical data are received by the author in this work. The expected date of beginning of voyage and related with them duration of ice-free navigation were determined. Expected voyage time from initial port in Murmansk to port of Provideniya and back to the Vilkitsky Strait (main limitation area for ice-free transit passage) was 24.8 days. Taking above into account, the greatest realistic chance of success was initially given to some of the presented dates of beginning of voyage.