Applications of gravity models to evaluate and forecast US international air freight markets post-GFC

Abstract

In addition to being the world's largest economy, the United States (US) has been the foremost driver of consumer spending, free trade and open skies policies. Trade-driven economic growth and air freight markets have been commonly linked in air transport research. Despite increased security after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, international air imports to the US has continued to grow at a rate faster than consumer spending.This paper aims to evaluate whether gravity models are robust enough to forecast and accurately account for substantial economic shocks such as the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Our research suggests that US demand for air freight is highly sensitive to transport costs, competition from sea freight and consumer spending patterns of perishable, low value and high value commodities across the 19 commodity groups examined, rather than manufacturing income or factors associated with product origin, which is all the more interesting in the context of the recent protectionist rhetoric of the US administration.