Abstract

Human and organizational factors (HOFs) play an important role in electric misoperation accidents (EMAs), but research into the reliability of human factors is still in its infancy in the field of EMAs, and further investment in research is urgently required. To analyze the HOFs in EMAs, a hybrid method including the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) and fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA) was applied to EMAs for the first time in the paper. HFACS is used to identify and classify the HOFs with 135 accidents, reorganized as basic events (BEs), intermediate events (IEs), and top event (TE), and develop the architecture of fault tree (FT). Fuzzy aggregation is employed to address experts’ expressions and obtain the failure probabilities of the BEs and the minimal cut sets (MCSs) of the FT. The approach generates BEs failure probabilities without reliance on quantitative historical failure statistics of EMAs via qualitative records processing. The FFTA–HFACS model is applied for quantitative analysis of the probability of failure of electrical mishaps and the interaction between accident risk factors. It can assist professionals in deciding whether and where to take preventive or corrective actions and assist in knowledgeable decision-making around the electric operation and maintenance process. Finally, applying this hybrid method to EMAs, the results show that the probability of an EMAs is 1.0410 × 10−2, which is a risk level that is likely to occur and must be controlled. Two of the most important risk factors are habitual violations and supervisory violation; a combination of risk factors of inadequate work preparation and paralysis, and irresponsibility on the part of employees are also frequent errors.

Highlights

  • According to the National Energy Administration of China [1], there will be around major electric power safety production accidents in China per year

  • The motivation of this study is to develop a flexible electric misoperation accidents (EMAs) analysis model by incorporating fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA) into the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS)

  • The proposed analysis procedure can be briefly divided into two stages: (i) one in which the Human and organizational factors (HOFs) identification and classification were conducted using the HFACS; (ii) one in which the FFTA was applied to EMAs to conduct a comprehensive risk analysis

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Summary

Introduction

According to the National Energy Administration of China [1], there will be around major electric power safety production accidents in China per year. Electric misoperation is one of the leading causes of power safety production accidents. Operation errors usually cause significant accidents, such as power outages, equipment damage, personal injuries, and the collapse of the power grid. A human error caused the Colombia blackout in 2007 in the 230 kV Substation Protection; the operation of the protection scheme of a coupling switch between the busloads caused a cascading outage in the transmission system [2]. The Florida blackout in 2008 was caused by a human error when a protection and control engineer manually removed the primary protection and the breakdown protection (secondary protection) from the service for an energized piece of equipment [3].

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