Application TAPM-AERMOD system model to study impacts of thermal power plants in SouthEast and SouthWest areas to the air quality of HCMC: current status and according to Vietnam power planning VII toward 2030

Abstract

Vietnam’s urban areas have faced serious environmental pollution issues, including water pollution, municipal waste, and air pollution. Vietnam’s real gross domestic product (GDP) has been experiencing positive growth for the past five years since 2016. And in 2019, Vietnam’s real GDP increased by 7.02% compared to the previous year. To maintain the growth rate, there is a huge amount of electricity required, not accounting for the other sectors. Thermal power plants generate more than 50% of total electricity in Vietnam, therefore, it is said that coal-fired power plants have been the major sources of air emissions and caused a serious impact on the environment. Recently air pollution is a hot issue in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC), the air quality is being polluted by PM2.5, O3, CO, NO2, and TSP. Despite that, the neighboring areas of the city will install more coal-fired power plants, threatening to degrade the quality of the environment. Therefore, the objectives of this study are (i) Modeling the impacts of thermal power plants in SouthEast and SouthWest areas on the air quality of HCMC for two scenarios (current status in 2019 and future according to Power planning VII (adjusted) toward 2030); And (ii) Develop interprovincial air quality protection solutions. The research applied the TAPM model for meteorological modeling and AERMOD model for air pollution dispersion. The annual average PM2.5 concentration in the study area was approximately 0.121 μg/m3 and the highest concentration at a location close to Vinh Tan thermal power center with 8.61 μg/m3. NO2 the annual average concentration from power plants in 2020 and 2030 blows to HCMC and contributes to HCMC’ air quality only 0.01 and 0.03 μg/m3, respectively. The 24 hours average concentration of SO2 from power plants in 2030 blows to HCMC and contributes to HCMC’ air quality of 10 μg/m3. The 24 hours average SO2 levels of HCMC in 2030 is 39.2 μg/m3, higher than WHO’s guideline (20 μg/m3). Currently, air pollution in HCMC is polluted by PM2.5, SO2, and NO2 and cause bad effect to public health. However, in the future with the contribution of 33 thermal power plants under intercity/provinces air pollution dispersion, air pollution HCMC will be worse and affect public health. Air pollution HCMC will be a huge impact on HCMC’s public health in the future due to the contribution of 33 thermal power plants under intercity/provinces air pollution dispersion. The paper developed 7 main mitigation measures to reduce the impacts of air pollution from the power plan and reduce the impacts of air pollution on HCM’s public health. The measures are focused on using clean fuel, advanced technology, and controlling trans-provincial air pollution.