Application of ultrasound shear wave elastography in pre-operative and quantitative prediction of clinically relevant post-operative pancreatic fistula after pancreatectomy: a prospective study for the investigation of risk evaluation model.

Abstract

The aim of this study was to modify recognized clinically relevant post-operative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) risk evaluation models with quantitative ultrasound shear wave elastography (SWE) values and identified clinical parameters to improve the objectivity and reliability of the prediction. Two prospective, successive cohorts were initially designed for the establishment of CR-POPF risk evaluation model and the internal validation. Patients who scheduled to receive pancreatectomy were enrolled. Virtual touch tissue imaging and quantification (VTIQ)-SWE was used to quantify pancreatic stiffness. CR-POPF was diagnosed according to 2016 International Study Group of Pancreatic Fistula standard. Recognized peri-operative risk factors of CR-POPF were analyzed, and the independent variables selected from multivariate logistic regression were used to build the prediction model. Finally, the CR-POPF risk evaluation model was built in a group of 143 patients (cohort 1). CR-POPF occurred in 52/143 (36%) patients. Constructed from SWE values and other identified clinical parameters, the model achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.866, with sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratio of 71.2%, 80.2%, and 3.597 in predicting CR-POPF. Decision curve of modified model revealed a better clinical benefit compared to the previous clinical prediction models. The models were then examined via internal validation in a separate collection of 72 patients (cohort 2). Risk evaluation model based on SWE and clinical parameters is a potential non-invasive way to pre-operatively, objectively predict CR-POPF after pancreatectomy. Our modified model based on ultrasound shear wave elastography may provide an easy access in pre-operative and quantitative evaluating the risk of CR-POPF following pancreatectomy and improve the objectivity and reliability of the prediction compared to previous clinical models. • Modified prediction model based on ultrasound shear wave elastography (SWE) provides an easy access for clinicians to pre-operatively, objectively evaluate the risk of clinically relevant post-operative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) following pancreatectomy. • Prospective study with validation showed that the modified model provides better diagnostic efficacy and clinical benefits compared to previous clinical models in predicting CR-POPF. • Peri-operative management of CR-POPF high-risk patients becomes more possible.