Application of Transfer Effect Models for Predicting Growth and Survival of Genetically Selected Scots Pine Seed Sources in Sweden

Abstract

We used a regression model approach to examine transferability of the 1.5-generation Swedish Scots pine orchard plus trees using the estimated coefficients of the transfer models recently developed for growth and survival of unimproved Scots pine in Sweden and Finland. Differences between observed and predicted values obtained for height and survival of 3214 plus tree progenies, tested at 58 progeny trials, were regressed on latitudinal transfers (∆LAT). In order to evaluate rates of improvement in height and survival of selected progenies over unimproved trees, average percentage differences in performances (∆g%) between the tree groups were calculated. Results indicate that the adopted models can further predict performances of more advanced-generation orchard trees, as there was no evidence of any systematic pattern in the slope of regression functions. Overall, ∆g% estimates obtained for height of progenies were greater than those of survival, suggesting Swedish Scots pine breeding activities are generating gain in the height growth. Moreover, ∆g% estimates obtained for height and survival of half-sib progenies were higher than those of full-sib ones, as a result of response to higher selection intensity applied in the reselection of their parents. This indicates that, in addition to the gain in growth, a gain in survival is also achievable from 1.5-generation seed orchards, depending on the intensity of selection and intended deployment site.