Application of the Theory of Self-Organized Criticality to the Investigation of Historical Processes

Dmitry S. Zhukov,Sergey K. Lyamin,Valery V. Kanishchev

doi:10.1177/2158244016683216

Abstract

The article demonstrates heuristic possibilities of the theory of self-organized criticality (SOC) in the investigation of historical processes. Key SOC concepts and ideas are explained. Specifically, tools that can be used for identifying pink noise, an attribute of a critical state, are described. The results of spectral analyses of historical demographic data (i.e., birth and death rates in Russian settlements in the 19th and 20th centuries) and historical market data (i.e., grain prices in regions of Russia in the 18th, 19th, and early 20th centuries) are presented. It was found that noise color in the data series differed substantially across different periods. Based on these observations, the assumption that a change in noise color can serve as an indicator of changes in historical processes was made. In some cases, this indicator can enable one to establish the time, speed, and direction of state changes in historical processes. Pink noise was discovered in the examined birth and death rate dynamics, as well as in the dynamics of prices across periods. The described methods have the potential to be used beyond the limits of the presently considered historical subjects, including in investigations of different types of social transformation.

Highlights

Our goal is to demonstrate the heuristic potential of the theory of self-organized criticality (SOC; Bak, 1996; Bak, Tang, & Wiesenfeld, 1988) in historical research projects
A great number of systems that change in pink noise (1/f noise) schemes have been discovered in nature, with examples ranging from quasar luminescence to river inundation
SOC founder Per Bak (1996) defined these type of processes: There are features of all sizes: rapid variations over minutes, and slow variations over years . . . The signal can be seen as a superposition of bumps of all sizes; it looks like a mountain landscape in time, rather than space

Summary

Introduction

Our goal is to demonstrate the heuristic potential of the theory of self-organized criticality (SOC; Bak, 1996; Bak, Tang, & Wiesenfeld, 1988) in historical research projects. Pink noise is characterized by large-scale invariance, combining in a single process all proportions from minor splashes, through mediumsized waves, to grand tsunamis. These elements must be united by numerous connections, including feedback loops. Bak has indicated that such systems are able to generate criticality arbitrarily, as a result of a weak initial influence. SAGE Open reactions and counter-reactions arise in the system, producing an ensemble of changes that generates oscillations of various scales constituting a pink noise. In this way, microlevel events generate macro-level dynamism

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