Application of the Parsimony Principle of Exponential Functions to the Production of COVID-19 Immunity, According to Bayesian Theorem and Cybernetics, to Tame Anti-scientific Doxastic Logic and the Pandemic

Abstract

The purpose of this work is to provide evidence to the scientific community that there is solid scientific knowledge available to tame the pandemic, which is mainly a behavioral problem that requires cybernetics through behavioral engineering. Scientifically it is clear that the problem of the pandemic originates in human behavior and misinformation. Behavioral problems are addressed by cybernetics through behavioral engineering. Aristotelian causes of the pandemic are aberrant behavior. This is the field of battle and the obsession of the subject is the rise of the neurotransmitter dopamine. The question is not what is the probability that a patient with COVID-19 has a certain symptom or sign? Rather it is to calculate the probability that a patient with a certain sign or symptom has COVID-19. Without grasping the differential equations modeled by Kermack and McKendrick, it is impossible to have an idea of what is happening in the pandemic. Our straightforward theoretical approach is to use the wild unmodified SARS-CoV-2 to produce immunity by the simple expedient of diminishing the amount of the inoculum to the minimum minimorum. The problem with allowing people, deliberately attempting herd immunity, is that it has the dire effect that a high percentage will necessarily die. It is a matter of competence between two exponential functions. On one hand the exponential reproduction of the virus, and on the other hand, the exponential production of antibodies and activation of T cells. The aim is to diminish the amount of the inoculum to the minimum minimorum capable of infecting the minimum susceptible cell subpopulation. In this manner, herd immunity could be reached, which would allow a parsimonical response in the viral exponential growth that would not overwhelm the exponential immune response. It is expected that susceptible subjects could be infected in a variolation modality through the universal use of masks, maximizing the distance, rather than in a noregulated exposure of a putative low-risk segment of the population. In the logic of the decision, we must distinguish a desideratum from what is physically, economically, legally, and politically implementable. It is a matter of policy-making supported by science and law instead of doxastic logic based on misinformation and bigotry. It is a matter of policy enforcement by cybernetics, by behavior engineering, not of a recommendation. The guidelines, if they are to be implemented, depend on the application of cybernetics, and behavioral engineering. The apodictic inference from fallacies, in a doxastic and desiderative logic, is the origin of disinformation. Keywords: COVID-19 Inoculum; Bayes Theorem; Cybernetics; Variolation; Herd immunity