Application of the HYSPLIT model for birch pollen modelling in Poland

Daria Bilińska-Prałat,Dorota Myszkowska,Maciej Kryza,Krystyna Piotrowska-Weryszko,Małgorzata Puc,Kazimiera Chłopek,Andrzej Wieczorkiewicz,Katarzyna Dąbrowska-Zapart,Ewa Kalinowska,Agnieszka Lipiec,Monika Ziemianin,Dariusz Jurkiewicz,Piotr Rapiejko,Anna Rapiejko,Barbara Majkowska-Wojciechowska,Małgorzata Malkiewicz,Grzegorz Siergiejko,Małgorzata Werner,Elżbieta Weryszko-Chmielewska

doi:10.1007/s10453-021-09737-0

Abstract

In this work, the HYSPLIT model was used to reproduce birch pollen concentrations in Poland for the years 2015 and 2016, where there was significant variation in terms of pollen concentrations and start/end dates of the pollen season. The analysis of pollen observations showed that the seasonal pollen integral (SPIn) was low in 2015 with a shorter season compared to 2016. In 2016, SPIn was unusually high. The HYSPLIT model simulation, with a one-hour temporal resolution, was conducted during the birch pollen season (from March to May) for 2015 and 2016. Meteorological data were obtained from the WRF model. The birch coverage map of the European Forest Institute was used. The emission, introduced to the model, covered Central Europe with a resolution of 0.3° × 0.3°. The results were compared to data from 11 observation stations in Poland. The measured birch pollen concentrations for 2015 were overestimated by HYSPLIT at 8 of the 11 stations (normalized mean bias/NMB from 0.13 to 2.53) and underestimated for three stations (NMB from − 0.44 to − 0.15). For 2016, the model highly underestimated the pollen concentrations, with NMB ranging from − 0.45 to − 0.93. In general, the results show that the model can resolve the main peaks of pollen concentrations, which is a step forward in the application of the HYSPLIT model for birch pollen forecasting over Poland. We suggest the application of methods that can reduce the bias of temperature such as meteorological data assimilation or bias correction, which could improve calculation of the start of emissions and consequently the start of the pollen season as well as pollen concentrations.

Highlights

Birch trees release the largest amounts of pollen in western Europe (Clot, 2001; D’Amato & Spieksma, 1992)
The purpose of the study is to check the ability of the HYSPLIT dispersion model to reproduce birch pollen concentrations and season characteristics such as start/end of the pollen season and seasonal pollen integral (SPIn) for two different years (2015 and 2016)
In 2015, the length of the pollen season for observational data lasted from 18 days in Wrocław and Warszawa to 30 days in Łodz, whereas for the BASE run it lasted from 16 days in Bydgoszcz to 29 days in Zielona Gora

Summary

Introduction

Birch trees release the largest amounts of pollen in western Europe (Clot, 2001; D’Amato & Spieksma, 1992) These trees are very common in Poland (Myszkowska, 2013; Skjøth et al, 2008). Previous studies have shown that even pollen stations located close to each other may differ significantly with regard to the amount of pollen (Bilinska et al, 2019a, 2019b). In this case, the modelling of pollen distribution is very important, especially for people allergic to it

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Results

Discussion

Conclusion