Application of the Hydromechanical Model for a Description of Tropical Cyclones Motion

Abstract

Within the framework of the hydromechanical model (HMM), proposed by one of the authors, a tropical cyclone (TC) motion is defined by a largescale wind field and a TC intensity. The model contains parameters describing TC and its interaction with wind field. The diagnostic, quasi-prognostic and prognostic calculations of TC movement are carried out. Diagnostic and quasi-prognostic calculations mean that an objective analysis of a large scale wind field and an objective analysis of a TC intensity is used during a TC whole lifetime. In case of diagnostic calculations, model parameters (constants for each TC) are defined from the best coincidence between the real and calculated track of a TC during a TC whole lifetime; for quasiprognostic calculations they are defined during the preliminary “preprognostic” period. Diagnostic calculations show that the HMMrather correctly describes peculiarities of a TC motion. Quasi-prognostic calculations show that model parameters may be rather correctly defined during a preliminary “preprognostic” period. The results of the diagnostic, quasi-prognostic and prognostic calculations are presented.