Application of the Hybrid-Maize model for limits to maize productivity analysis in a semiarid environment

Yi Liu,Fang Chen,Shiqing Li,Shenjiao Yang

doi:10.1590/s0103-90162012000500003

Abstract

Effects of meteorological variables on crop production can be evaluated using various models. We have evaluated the ability of the Hybrid-Maize model to simulate growth, development and grain yield of maize (Zea mays L.) cultivated on the Loess Plateau, China, and applied it to assess effects of meteorological variations on the performance of maize under rain-fed and irrigated conditions. The model was calibrated and evaluated with data obtained from field experiments performed in 2007 and 2008, then applied to yield determinants using daily weather data for 2005-2009, in simulations under both rain-fed and irrigated conditions. The model accurately simulated Leaf Area Index , biomass, and soil water data from the field experiments in both years, with normalized percentage root mean square errors < 25 %. Gr.Y and yield components were also accurately simulated, with prediction deviations ranging from -2.3 % to 22.0 % for both years. According to the simulations, the maize potential productivity averaged 9.7 t ha-1 under rain-fed conditions and 11.53 t ha-1 under irrigated conditions, and the average rain-fed yield was 1.83 t ha-1 less than the average potential yield with irrigation. Soil moisture status analysis demonstrated that substantial potential yield may have been lost due to water stress under rain-fed conditions.

Highlights

Maize (Zea mays L.) has become a major crop on the Loess Plateau, China, in the last ten years, and covers ca. 27.3 of the agricultural area in the region (Xue et al, 2008)
We have evaluated the ability of the Hybrid-Maize model to simulate growth, development and grain yield of maize (Zea mays L.) cultivated on the Loess Plateau, China, and applied it to assess effects of meteorological variations on the performance of maize under rain-fed and irrigated conditions
To calibrate the Hybrid-maize model, the phenological development parameters related to silking and maturity dates were used obtained from the 2007 and 2008 field experiments

Summary

Introduction

Maize (Zea mays L.) has become a major crop on the Loess Plateau, China, in the last ten years, and covers ca. 27.3 of the agricultural area in the region (Xue et al, 2008). The increase of its cultivation has been prompted by agricultural advances, such as improvements in crop rotations in conjunction with improvements in uses of agricultural equipment and human resources, and increases in maize prices (Xue et al, 2008). The area is mostly located in a semiarid region of China, where the annual precipitation ranges from 150–300 mm in the north to 500–700 mm in the south (Li and Xiao, 1992), and water availability for crop production is often sub-optimal due to both overall shortages and uneven distributions of water supplies during the year. Any crop productivity is directly related to its uptake of resources, e.g. light and water, and its efficiency of utilizing them to generate biomass (Azam-Ali et al, 1994; Yang et al, 2004; Liu et al, 2010a). Analyses of relationships between potential maize yields and environmental factors have shown that light, temperature and water availability are crucial yield determinants (Cirilo and Andrade, 1994)

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Results

Discussion

Conclusion