Statistika: Statistics and Economy Journal | VOL. 102
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Application of the Hybrid Forecasting Models to Road Traffic Accidents in Algeria

Publication Date Jun 17, 2022

Abstract

Road traffic accidents are a growing public health concern. In this study, we focused on analyzing and forecasting the monthly number of accidents, number of injuries, and number of deaths in Algeria over the period (2015–2020). For this purpose, hybrid forecasting models based on equal weights and in-sample errors were fitted, and we compared them with the seasonal autoregressive moving average (SARIMA) models. The three models retained for forecasting until 2022 are all hybrid models, one based on equal weight and two models based on in-sample errors (using the RMSE indicator). Furthermore, the hybrid models outperformed the SARIMA models for short (6 months), medium (12 months), and long horizon (24 months). The forecasting results showed that we expect an increase in the number of accidents, the number of deaths, and the number of injuries over the next 12 months. Policymakers must enhance strategies for prevention and road safety, especially in rural areas, where the highest rate of fatalities is recorded.

Concepts

Seasonal Autoregressive Moving Average In-sample Errors Number Of Accidents Hybrid Forecasting Models Equal Weight Highest Rate Of Fatalities Road Traffic Accidents Road Safety Hybrid Models Equal Errors

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No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors. The conception and design of the study, acquisition of data, analysis and interpretatio...

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